What cost complete originality?

Banditman

http://www.premierguitar.com/articles/23004-acoustic-soundboard-your-guitar-might-last-forever-but-will-its-parts

Discuss

singemonkey

Flat-top acoustics are probably the worst investments there are. That design is not rugged enough to maintain its tone for the length of time that a violin can - although its tone will also reach a peak much more quickly. Forget about celluloid and complete originality. Pre-war Martins are not going to continue sounding as good as newer guitars for much longer.

This is not a trivial concern. 300 year-old violins maintain their value in part because of their legendary tone. But that will decline. There is not the same collector's value in early 20th C pianos, because their tone declines much more rapidly. A recent Steinway will knock a 20s Steinway into a cocked hat.

Archtop acoustics and mandolins can expect to have a tone lifespan equivalent to a violin or cello. And electrics and banjos essentially do not change tone over time and can be expected to sound the same in 500 years.

Nitebob

Are we concerned what our cars are going to be worth in 200-300 years? No. They will be rubbish. If I buy a guitar, it is to be played. If I want to make an investment, it will be in property, or in another business.

We were discussing my current drool over guitar. Taylor K24CE. At around R70k I will never (unless I fall into Bransonness) own one. If I had to save for it, I sure as heck won't spend the R70k on a guitar, there will always be something more important...

singemonkey

Nitebob wrote: Are we concerned what our cars are going to be worth in 200-300 years? No. They will be rubbish. If I buy a guitar, it is to be played. If I want to make an investment, it will be in property, or in another business.

Most guitars hold their value after the initial drop from the new price. Cars almost always devalue to virtually nothing within 10 years or so. But you can't pretend that some guitars haven't been utterly spectacular investments. You bought a '50s sunburst Les Paul in 1980 it probably cost about $3,000. Now it's worth about $400,000. Outperformed property by quite a ways.

We were discussing my current drool over guitar. Taylor K24CE. At around R70k I will never (unless I fall into Bransonness) own one. If I had to save for it, I sure as heck won't spend the R70k on a guitar, there will always be something more important...

Perhaps. Depends on the person. How many people do you know will buy a car for R400k which will be worth R20k in 15 years? Meanwhile, if you bought that Taylor 2nd hand (assuming it's available) it'd probably cost about R40k. In 5 years time it'll probably be worth the equivalent of... R40k. If you bought a Gibson '59 reissue 5 years ago 2nd hand, it'd cost about R25k. Now you'd sell it for about R35k. Think about the equivalent in cars - where no one bats an eye they're so used to it.

ezietsman

singemonkey wrote:
Nitebob wrote: Are we concerned what our cars are going to be worth in 200-300 years? No. They will be rubbish. If I buy a guitar, it is to be played. If I want to make an investment, it will be in property, or in another business.
Most guitars hold their value after the initial drop from the new price. Cars almost always devalue to virtually nothing within 10 years or so. But you can't pretend that some guitars haven't been utterly spectacular investments. You bought a '50s sunburst Les Paul in 1980 it probably cost about $3,000. Now it's worth about $400,000. Outperformed property by quite a ways.

We were discussing my current drool over guitar. Taylor K24CE. At around R70k I will never (unless I fall into Bransonness) own one. If I had to save for it, I sure as heck won't spend the R70k on a guitar, there will always be something more important...
Perhaps. Depends on the person. How many people do you know will buy a car for R400k which will be worth R20k in 15 years? Meanwhile, if you bought that Taylor 2nd hand (assuming it's available) it'd probably cost about R40k. In 5 years time it'll probably be worth the equivalent of... R40k. If you bought a Gibson '59 reissue 5 years ago 2nd hand, it'd cost about R25k. Now you'd sell it for about R35k. Think about the equivalent in cars - where no one bats an eye they're so used to it.

This. So much this. A R300 000 car is no better than than a R200 000 car (be honest, its not) and you end up paying R400 000+ for it over 5 years and you lose 50% value every 5 years. So after 5 years you paid R400k and it is worth R200k. So why not just get the R200k model and a second hand top quality guitar for R50k. Shit for that difference you can have a second hand Gibson R9 and any boutique amp you can name. I know I'm talking about above cars too expensive for most people to afford but if you can afford a R300k car, you can easily afford a R200k car AND a R70k guitar.

Hasie

ez wrote:
singemonkey wrote:
Nitebob wrote: Are we concerned what our cars are going to be worth in 200-300 years? No. They will be rubbish. If I buy a guitar, it is to be played. If I want to make an investment, it will be in property, or in another business.
Most guitars hold their value after the initial drop from the new price. Cars almost always devalue to virtually nothing within 10 years or so. But you can't pretend that some guitars haven't been utterly spectacular investments. You bought a '50s sunburst Les Paul in 1980 it probably cost about $3,000. Now it's worth about $400,000. Outperformed property by quite a ways.

We were discussing my current drool over guitar. Taylor K24CE. At around R70k I will never (unless I fall into Bransonness) own one. If I had to save for it, I sure as heck won't spend the R70k on a guitar, there will always be something more important...
Perhaps. Depends on the person. How many people do you know will buy a car for R400k which will be worth R20k in 15 years? Meanwhile, if you bought that Taylor 2nd hand (assuming it's available) it'd probably cost about R40k. In 5 years time it'll probably be worth the equivalent of... R40k. If you bought a Gibson '59 reissue 5 years ago 2nd hand, it'd cost about R25k. Now you'd sell it for about R35k. Think about the equivalent in cars - where no one bats an eye they're so used to it.
This. So much this. A R300 000 car is no better than than a R200 000 car (be honest, its not) and you end up paying R400 000+ for it over 5 years and you lose 50% value every 5 years. So after 5 years you paid R400k and it is worth R200k. So why not just get the R200k model and a second hand top quality guitar for R50k. Shit for that difference you can have a second hand Gibson R9 and any boutique amp you can name. I know I'm talking about above cars too expensive for most people to afford but if you can afford a R300k car, you can easily afford a R200k car AND a R70k guitar.

:applause:

Nowadays, your car drops 50% in 3-4 years. And if you bought it with a residual value of more than 15%, you will struggle to get a trade value that will settle the financing.

Get a small car, light on fuel consumption, and get your dream guitar - sounds like a better option to me.

Nitebob

@Singe...You may know what to buy to have a return on investment where guitars are concerned (and I bow to your superior knowledge). Some may know which stock to invest in. I don't....I once bought a used ovation for R4500 only to later find out it was only worth about R2000. I once bought a G-series Tak and a Pacifica off someone for R2k thinking I could make some profit, turns out I could only manage to give them away, one to my brother and one to my brother in law. I do, however, know that property (almost) always increases in value, and that I can increase the value of a business through management experience.... therefore...

When I buy a guitar, it's cause it's purdy.... ? and I want to play it...

babbalute

So we should all be looking for an expensive PB or JB or a rare start in the region of about 70K or 100K or 200K and more(in Rand) if you can afford it on Ebay. Surely these will keep their value or even increase in 20 years from now ? With the depreciating R at the moment you will surely make money in 20 years from now(in R) ?

ezietsman

babbalute wrote: So we should all be looking for an expensive PB or JB or a rare start in the region of about 70K or 100K or 200K and more(in Rand) if you can afford it on Ebay. Surely these will keep their value or even increase in 20 years from now ? With the depreciating R at the moment you will surely make money in 20 years from now(in R) ?

Basically. But don't think you'll sell it in South Africa. You can resell these expensive things on Ebay or elsewhere. People here don't really go for the collectables so the prices are much lower than say, the States.

Wildaker

singemonkey wrote: Flat-top acoustics are probably the worst investments there are.

Nah, that'll be flamenco guitars—so lightly built that most are dead in a decade, if not less.

Wizard

Cars are a consumption item, not an investment.
And they never floated my boat to put my fun money.
I skipped a car upgrade once to buy a dream woodwork shop.
That really highlights the opportunity cost between "sensible" and "temptation" cars

V8

Wizard wrote: Cars are a consumption item, not an investment.
And they never floated my boat to put my fun money.

I'm not so sure I like you anymore... ?

Cars can be a decent invest...get in at the right money and -most importantly- get out at the right time. The car that earnt my my nickname (Ford Capri Perana..V8!) was bought for 18k, sold 2 years later for 18k when I went overseas. Four years after that I was calls from people who tracked me off the owners registration offering 100k+, out performed gold 3:1 in the same period (and gold went up substantially in that period). ???

Nitebob

I was once told: "A millionare (not a multi-billionare though) doesn't drive a Rolls Royce. He drives a second hand Camry. Because to him it only makes sense to drive something that increases in value"

singemonkey

I was trying to point out why cars are an invalid comparison. The overwhelming majority of cars devalue steadily from the day you get them. If they're new, you take a big hit driving them away from the showroom. But if they're second-hand, they devalue anyway.

Now guitars, you do take a hit taking them from the show-room. But if you get then 2nd hand, they usually retain their value pretty well. They do not automatically decline towards scrap-value at a steady rate.

Are there cars that are investments? Undoubtedly. But they're few and far between. And they usually cost a bomb to begin with. A Jaguar E-type wasn't exactly cheap when new. Most automatically devalue.

Guitars don't. While few are investments (becoming more valuable in real terms over time), many or most can be thought of as saving. In other words, putting your money in a used guitar, it'll retain its value better than bunging that money in the bank where the interest rates are below inflation - i.e., your money is worth slightly less every month.

Wizard

I agree Singe.
A quality guitar once secondhand stays exactly that.
A quality secondhand guitar.

@v8:
I'm just saying that I wouldn't spend my fun consumption money on cars.
And I'm sure there are good investments to be had if you have the interest, upgrade skills and knowledge.
But I don't.
?

Nitebob

Personal preferences also plays a role. We were discussing some sheik who owns seven thousand odd cars, which will never make sense to me, but five seconds later I felt like a hypocrite, because if I had the money, I'd own at least ten acoustics....

V8

singemonkey wrote: I was trying to point out why cars are an invalid comparison. The overwhelming majority of cars devalue steadily from the day you get them. If they're new, you take a big hit driving them away from the showroom. But if they're second-hand, they devalue anyway.

Singe, I do agree - we're being the devil to each other's advocates...which I enjoy. I'm of the opinion that healthy debate encourages critical thinking, Which I'm all for.

There's an exception to every "rule", be it cars, guitars, comics - pretty much any "collectable". Few can speculate what the future 'gem' is going to be. Forex trading is less risky :?

The two things I'm learning about collectables/investments :

1. Get in at the right money and get out at the right time. (Research is important, though luck is a factor too.)
2. Don't be emotionally invested, No.1 always applies.

Banditman

Really good points made by all. I'm going to throw a slightly different direction though. It'll also tie in with an aspect of car collecting.

Assuming you bought the guitar not just as an investment, but to actually play. If the wood/neck/binding/bridge/hardware has deteriorated to the point where the instrument is no longer playable or sounds nice, at what point will sanity prevail?

Take the whole car collector & rat rod thing. These days, originality at all costs is key for some. I'm in favour of preserving old but worn paintwork and trim etc to a point. A rusty 'rod will continue to rust, even if you'd like to believe that you can hold it at what I'll call a point of no-more-rusting. AT some point all that originality - if not conserved or preserved - will deteriorate past the point of any value.

Will some people keep a falling-apart-but-original item in the hope the value will increase, based on the fact that it's original? No doubt. But there's a reason why restoration shops exist, and that's to keep items usable.

My 5c? If it's original and working fine, keep it that way. If the bridge is worn out or pots are finished - restore the thing. Keep the dud original parts if you must for a future confused buyer, but rather keep them playing (and driving).