Exploring Guitar Value

eric-vaxxine

My 1962 Fender Stratocaster would be worth a small fortune if it was totally original.
Even refretted, skimmed fingerboard, replacement saddles and machine heads.... it is still a valuable vintage instrument, to buyers.

A friend of mine called me when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans and simply said...
"Your Strat has gone up in value dude".

I use a 1997 Blonde Gibson 335 as my main guitar these days and it too, seems to have accrued more value in vintage value, than it's original purchase price.

So, will the guitars on todays guitar shop shelf also increase in value?

peterleroux

I suppose some of them will. The hassle is none of us know which ones. The 2015 Gibsons are getting so much hate that they might change the line completely next year, and in forty years time they'll be unicorns that people are desperate to get hold of, because so few were sold.

singemonkey

You say your '97 335 has gone up in value. Like above inflation or simply in terms of dollar value? Could you sell it for above the retail price of a new 335?

IceCreamMan

This thread made me go look at the new price for an American standard Strat ...well well sticker price is now 33k with a discount offered meaning you get it for around 26k. (admittedly a very unscientific exercise which I performed) I am sure one can get a lil more discount.

In ZA with the decline of our currency my strat has increased in value but not due to year of manufacture, more so due to the rapid increase in new prices due to inflation/currency decline. its a 2011 model. This strat could be bought locally for around 12k back then. so 100% increase in the last 3/4 years.

Will it increase in value due to age in the long run...difficult to say , it prolly would in say hundreds of years but due to the number made in 2011 not in the traditional vintage way. And of course it also depends on whether guitars will be considered iconic instruments as they are today.

V8

eric vaxxine wrote: So, will the guitars on todays guitar shop shelf also increase in value?

I know little about high end guitars where rarity often is a determination of value (Duesenbergs , Gretsh White Falcon's ,etc..) - but if I were to take a punt on something appreciating right now - I'd consider MIJ Fenders...

http://iheartguitarblog.com/2015/04/where-did-fender-japan-go.html#sthash.4SM0fndm.dpbs

Not that I expect a huge bump in value, there are quite a few MIJ/CIJ's out there and Tokai will still make great MIJ instruments - just with the 'correct' logo ?...but there some Fender Japanese market only models that are very interesting and people will continue to want them.

singemonkey

... bearing in mind that most of the '90s MIJ Fenders with the 'correct logo' were made by Tokai (although the logo magically makes them sound better ? )

I agree. I think high-end MIJ Fenders from the last 30 years especially will probably increase over their current 2nd hand prices. But the thing is, compared to the golden-era electrics, it may take a veeeeery long time before they're worth more than the equivalent in the stores.

'70s Gibsons have been increasing in value, but only a handful are worth more than their new equivalents. Only one I can really think of is the 1972 reissue of the 1954 Les Paul Custom. One in good nick is probably worth a bit more than a modern reissue off the rack.

Maybe.

Let's just be quite clear in case anyone misses this point: The fact that your guitar commands a bigger price tag this year vs. last year does not mean it's increased in value. You have to adjust for inflation. Once you do that, most of the price increase usually disappears.

IceCreamMan

the ZA economy is probably not a fair reflection of increases due to high inflation rates and declining currency rates. An American model would be more consistent (or british for that matter).

It must be remembered that in the mid 70's a high end LP was around 500 dollars or (exact price I don't recall) which then was around 400 rand. that same 500 dollars is now 7000 rand. a huge increase.

Wildaker

To answer the original question, I suspect that the bulk of today's top-brand guitars will increase in value less than those from the past. This is for one simple economic factor: scarcity. Not that many 1962 Fender Stratocasters were made, compared with 2015 Fender Stratocasters (even US-made ones). That's a key reason why 1970s bullet-neck Strats are worth more than (much better, as a player) many new guitars.

The top brands create deliberate scarcity with limited-edition Custom Shop (or whatever) models. Some of those will increase massively in value, but I suspect that many will not, and the huge premium over the standard models may well decrease over time, as they're considered to be "better, but not that much better".

Banditman

Since the '70s or '80s when the whole collector boom really took off, especially finding Dinky cars or Marklin toys in their original boxes and so on, every collector old & new out there knows you have to keep a collectible mint.

So we have limited edition releases which are limited editions, and they'll probably always be desirable to the collectors in the know. But its highly unlikely they'll ever approach the rarity of mid-20th century toys (or guitars, or whatevers) simply because those early items were never seen as limited edition collectibles when first made. Yes they were prized, but they were toys - or instruments to be played.

Modern collectibles and limited editions will inevitably see shrinking numbers. Theft, fires & other incidents will thin numbers down somewhat but not to the extent of the originals.

Will newly-built guitars approach the prices of the vintage stuff one day? I can't see why not, especially with some high-end instruments made in truly limited numbers. But perhaps we'll also see some common sense creeping back again. In the '90s there was a mad boom in collecting classic cars and supercars. Cars like Morris Minors and Anglias were starting to go for stupid money, then the bubble burst to a degree and prices settled to more sensible levels (probably because the mass craze died off a bit - just like it will with Stickies).

Time will tell.

V8

singemonkey wrote: ... bearing in mind that most of the '90s MIJ Fenders with the 'correct logo' were made by Tokai (although the logo magically makes them sound better ? )

...I was re-gurgitating a FB post by Lance (Mr. Tokai) where he reckon that the Fender MIJ instruments were now (well since 2011, when Tokai Gakki stopped re-branding) being made with the "correct" logo...aka Tokai! ?

singemonkey wrote: I agree. I think high-end MIJ Fenders from the last 30 years especially will probably increase over their current 2nd hand prices. But the thing is, compared to the golden-era electrics, it may take a veeeeery long time before they're worth more than the equivalent in the stores.

Yip - will take a while. And they would have to be the high end/low volume models. The ones I've seen mentioned were the MIJ Richie Kotzen Tele, Medium Scale Basses (gimme a J Bass!), certain re-issues and anniversary models & possibly the Aerodyne's. Hmm, MIJ tele's are also uncommon in SA...

My 95 MIJ strat won't really appreciate until 2040, which is fine by me, she ain't no show pony.

singemonkey

I'd still like to hear of a guitar bought in the last 30 years that's worth more now than it was new - adjusted for inflation.

V8

singemonkey wrote: I'd still like to hear of a guitar bought in the last 30 years that's worth more now than it was new - adjusted for inflation.

Bought new & then adjusted for SA inflation?

Given that the exchange rate is a absolute joke, that'll be a impossible task.

2nd hand however - I've got one. Was R800 in 1994, I can easily get R6k for it today. (Guesstimating inflation @ 100%/6years)